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Case study

Last on Goodreads, first on AO3 for its size: what fan fiction saw in Heated Rivalry

Three adapted romances, two ways of counting readers, and a theory about books that leave room.

  • Case study
  • 4 min read
  • Figures as of Sep 28, 2026

Case study · 4 min read · Figures as of Sep 28, 2026

By Mariah Williams-Roberts

Ask me to check something

In this piece

The 30-second read

Two hockey romances were announced for television eight months apart: Off Campus at Prime Video in October 2024 and Heated Rivalry at Crave in June 2025. By November 2025, The Deal, the first Off Campus book, had about a million Goodreads ratings. Heated Rivalry had about 42,000. Then it aired, and won a record 16 Canadian Screen Awards and a Peabody.

I looked at Archive of Our Own (AO3), where fans post their own stories, and counted fan works on each couple's tag for every 1,000 Goodreads ratings. I call it the maker rate. Before their shows, The Deal sat at 0.02 and Heated Rivalry at 13.6. Three books can't show that fan writing predicts anything. They show that the book with the fewest ratings had by far the most fan writing for its size.

When I measured each book, against its show
Every "before" count is an archived capture. Each one sits a different distance from its premiere.
  • The Deal, 2024-10-01, Prime Video orders Off Campus
  • The Deal, 2025-08-14, AO3 capture: 21 works
  • The Deal, 2025-11-12, Goodreads capture: 1,004,420 ratings
  • The Deal, 2026-05-13, Off Campus premieres
  • The Deal, 2026-09-28, My read: 450 works, 1,452,066 ratings
  • Heated Rivalry, 2022-06-01, AO3 capture: 71 works
  • Heated Rivalry, 2023-12-17, AO3 capture: 223 works
  • Heated Rivalry, 2025-06-05, Crave confirms its order
  • Heated Rivalry, 2025-10-31, AO3 capture: 566 works
  • Heated Rivalry, 2025-11-09, Goodreads capture: 41,582 ratings
  • Heated Rivalry, 2025-11-28, Heated Rivalry premieres
  • Heated Rivalry, 2026-09-28, My read: 45,712 works, 467,034 ratings
  • Red, White & Royal Blue, 2023-08-06, AO3 capture: 3,018 works
  • Red, White & Royal Blue, 2023-08-08, Goodreads capture: 790,058 ratings
  • Red, White & Royal Blue, 2023-08-11, Film premieres on Prime Video
  • Red, White & Royal Blue, 2026-09-28, My read: 13,213 works, 1,283,788 ratings
Sources (12)

Source: Archived captures CS1-107 CS1-108 CS1-109 CS1-110 CS1-111 CS1-112 CS1-114; orders and premieres CS1-118 CS1-119 CS1-120; my reads CS1-14 to CS1-19

See the numbers
BookDateWhat happened
The Deal2024-10-01Prime Video orders Off Campus
The Deal2025-08-14AO3 capture: 21 works
The Deal2025-11-12Goodreads capture: 1,004,420 ratings
The Deal2026-05-13Off Campus premieres
The Deal2026-09-28My read: 450 works, 1,452,066 ratings
Heated Rivalry2022-06-01AO3 capture: 71 works
Heated Rivalry2023-12-17AO3 capture: 223 works
Heated Rivalry2025-06-05Crave confirms its order
Heated Rivalry2025-10-31AO3 capture: 566 works
Heated Rivalry2025-11-09Goodreads capture: 41,582 ratings
Heated Rivalry2025-11-28Heated Rivalry premieres
Heated Rivalry2026-09-28My read: 45,712 works, 467,034 ratings
Red, White & Royal Blue2023-08-06AO3 capture: 3,018 works
Red, White & Royal Blue2023-08-08Goodreads capture: 790,058 ratings
Red, White & Royal Blue2023-08-11Film premieres on Prime Video
Red, White & Royal Blue2026-09-28My read: 13,213 works, 1,283,788 ratings

The key details

Red, White & Royal Blue is also two men, with a ratings count much closer to The Deal's. Its maker rate was 3.8. That's far above The Deal, but less than a third of Heated Rivalry's. M/M probably helps, but it doesn't explain the whole gap. In raw numbers, Heated Rivalry had 566 works a month before its show and Red, White & Royal Blue had 3,018, so it's first for its size, not first by volume.

Before the shows: last on ratings, first for its size
Archived captures from before each adaptation premiered.
  • The Deal, 1,004,420, 0.02
  • Red, White & Royal Blue, 790,058, 3.8
  • Heated Rivalry, 41,582, 13.6
Sources (6)

Source: CS1-109 CS1-111 CS1-107 CS1-110 CS1-112 CS1-108

See the numbers
BookGoodreads ratingsFan works per 1,000 ratings
The Deal1,004,4200.02
Red, White & Royal Blue790,0583.8
Heated Rivalry41,58213.6
The numbers in one glance
  • 13.6 vs 0.02: Fan works per 1,000 Goodreads ratings before each show: Heated Rivalry against The Deal
  • 566 to 45,712: Heated Rivalry fan works, a month before its premiere and on September 28, 2026
  • 3 to 1: How far Heated Rivalry still trails The Deal in Goodreads ratings
  • 316x vs 7x: Heated Rivalry's maker rate against The Deal's, on AO3 and on Wattpad

After the shows, every rate went up

Heated Rivalry's couple tag held 566 works a month before its premiere and 45,712 on September 28, 2026. It's still the smallest of the three books on Goodreads. Its lead over Red, White & Royal Blue grew. Its lead over The Deal shrank, because The Deal started from almost nothing.

Heated Rivalry fan works: 566 a month before the show, 45,712 on September 28, 2026
Public works on the AO3 Shane Hollander/Ilya Rozanov tag. Each dot is one reading; the lines only join them.
  • June 1, 2022, 71
  • December 17, 2023, 223
  • October 31, 2025, 566
  • September 28, 2026, 45,712

Dashed: eleven months with no reading in between.

Sources (3)

Source: CS1-114 CS1-107 CS1-19

See the numbers
DateWorks
June 1, 202271
December 17, 2023223
October 31, 2025566
September 28, 202645,712

Wattpad, a second fan fiction site, agrees on the order but not the size: 316 times The Deal's rate on AO3, about 7 times on Wattpad. Part of that is what each tag holds. On AO3, volunteers link writers' tags to one shared couple tag. On Wattpad, some stories use the tag for something other than the couple, like crossovers or "inspired by" stories.

Heated Rivalry against The Deal: 316 times on AO3, about 7 times on Wattpad
Fan works (AO3) and tagged stories (Wattpad) per 1,000 Goodreads ratings, September 28, 2026. Each panel has its own scale.
  • The Deal, 0.31, 0.10
  • Red, White & Royal Blue, 10.3, 0.12
  • Heated Rivalry, 97.9, 0.74
Sources (7)

Source: CS1-17 CS1-18 CS1-19 CS1-125 CS1-14 CS1-15 CS1-16

See the numbers
BookAO3Wattpad
The Deal0.310.10
Red, White & Royal Blue10.30.12
Heated Rivalry97.90.74

My theory: open and closed stories

Some stories are closed: a complete, satisfying arc that wraps up. Some are open: they leave room between the pages, on purpose or by accident. If I'm right, a high maker rate doesn't measure how good or popular a book is. It may partly measure how much room it leaves. Neither kind is better.

Closed and open stories, as I picture them
An illustration of a theory, not data.
  • Closed: A to B to C, then it wraps up.
  • Open: time skipped, a side character's story, and what comes after the ending.

A question I want to ask out loud

Fan writing is made by fans, for fans. Should anyone be counting it? Is there a way to understand what love stories people are hungry for without being extractive about it? I counted only the totals AO3 shows every visitor, by hand and logged out. I didn't scrape the site, open a story or look at who wrote anything.

What this can't tell me

  • Three books are three books, and all three were picked because they were adapted. I sorted them into open and closed after seeing their numbers.
  • The couple tags don't match the books exactly, and AO3 volunteers rename and merge tags, so the rise in any one tag may include works that moved in.
  • Every count is a logged-out floor, and a Goodreads rating isn't a reader.
  • Open and closed is a theory. Nothing in these counts tests it yet.

What I'm chasing next

A set of criteria for "open", so I can score a few dozen romances before I know their maker rates and see whether the theory holds.

The full case study has the Wattpad read, every chart and table, and all the caveats.

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